GETTING THE EDGE WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS

By: The Sportsbook Shark     Date: Sep 21, 2007


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Last Saturday, we finally saw something that hadn’t happened all year. The full slate of college football games had more Unders than Overs!

It took oddsmakers and the betting market longer to catch up to reality than anticipated. Even though many expected scoring to increase dramatically this year from last year, the numbers were behind the curve until last week.

Did college football “slow down” after racing off to a fast start? No, it was just a matter of the lines finally getting lifted up to the right place. Games projected to be high scoring shootouts were still high scoring shootouts. Here are the actual final scoreboard totals from games lined with totals of 55 or higher last week. I’ve arranged them from high to low:

44-47-53-54-57-58-62-63-67-73-73-74-76-79-83

Fully 13 of the 15 games still cracked 50 points, with the midpoint of the sample resting at 63.

We’re still seeing fast break football all over the country. The listing above doesn’t even include the wild BYU/Tulsa game that was 34-31 at the half before ending 55-47. That game DOUBLED its listed total of 51!

If you like betting college totals, you’ve really got to be aware right now. The linemaker is finally putting monster totals on the projected shootouts (the 15 games in the listing above still were 7-8 to the Under even with all the scoring), taking away most or all of the value that was there in the first two weeks when projected shootouts were a gold mine. Unders are dicey though because the nature of the game has changed so much since last season. Games that would have struck you as “obvious” Unders last year are seeing much more scoring this season. Virginia Tech/LSU might have been scoreless at the half last year. That matchup saw 55 points two weeks ago. The defensive-minded SEC saw 79 points in both Tennessee/Florida and Arkansas/Alabama last week.

Keep these factors in mind:

*There are many more plays in games this year than last year because college football eliminated the rules changes that had taken time off the clock. You’ve just got to erase last year from your mind in terms of Over/Under perceptions.

*Kickoffs have moved back to the 30-yard line, creating an improvement in field position on most drives. Fields are shorter, and games are longer! There’s also been talk that improved field position may have encouraged coaches to “open things up” a bit sooner than they had in the past, creating big plays or disastrous turnovers earlier than what fans are used to seeing. Those betting Overs in first quarters this year have done very well. This might be one of the reasons why.

*The success of Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last year, and the quick one-year turnaround at Rice with a hurry-up offense (which moved to Tulsa with coach Todd Graham, helping ignite last week’s BYU fireworks show) has inspired several traditional losers to get a bit pass happy this year. This has added to the increased number of plays from last season. If you comb the boxscores, you’ll see a lot of teams passing 45 times or more per game.

*Many teams that had struggled on offense last year (notably Alabama) have upgraded their offenses because of coaching or personnel changes. 

*It should be noted too that the weather was unseasonably cool and damp in the Midwest and Northeast last year right off the bat, helping to reduce scoring at a time when other factors were already causing that to happen. This year, the weather’s been great so far across the country, giving teams ideal conditions to experiment with more wide open offenses…with better field position…in longer games.

If you want to bet an Under, you’d better LOVE IT!

If you like betting Overs, you may find more value at the smaller numbers. Vegas now knows to post something in the mid 60’s or even 70’s on the probable track meets. They’re still missing some things in the middle though, as we saw last week in the SEC games and BYU/Tulsa.

See if you can stay a few steps ahead of the linemaker this year as the learning curve on totals continues to unfold before our very eyes.

Remember to bet all those totals at Sportsbook.com.  Totals are on every game on the board at Sportsbook.com, so check them out right now.


 


 
 
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