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When thinking about the NFL, it’s easy to group teams into “perennial contenders,” and “perennial losers.” Franchises in the first group often have a short fuse when it comes to a downturn in fortune. One year of struggling or treading water will be tolerated. If the problems continue, the coach will often be fired because ownership is worried that a good thing is about to go bad.

Last year, there were SIX teams that fell to .500 or below after reaching the playoffs in 2005. Five of the six were 11-5 or better two years ago, yet none could post a winning record the following season. All six coaches need to produce NOW, or they will likely be out of work before the Super Bowl.

It’s very important for handicappers to monitor situations like this because of the volatility involved. Whenever a sense of urgency grips a franchise, one of two things is likely to happen:

*A big surge back to the top of the league resulting in a great won-lost record and a winning mark against the Las Vegas pointspreads. Expectations had been lowered by the short slump…and it takes awhile for the line to catch back up when a team catches fire.

*A collapse when the players realize that it’s just not going to happen. They tune out the coach, go through the motions, and the franchise won’t get back in gear until a change is made. Teams like this will post ugly won-lost records, and will be awful against the spread because the public is slow to completely give up on teams who were playoff bound just two years earlier.

You can see there’s value in either direction. If you catch the resurgent teams when they ignite, you can ride them for several weeks. If you see the collapse before Vegas does, you can go the other way for winner after winner.

Here are the six head coaches we think you should monitor. Remember, all six made the playoffs two years ago…yet NONE made the playoffs last season. We’ve listed them in order of the biggest drop offs in won-lost record from ’05 to ‘06:

Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Bucs (4-12 after going 11-5)
Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins (5-11 after going 10-6)
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8 after going 12-4)
Tom Coughlin, New York Giants (8-8 after going 11-5)
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals (8-8 after going 11-5)
John Fox, Carolina Panthers (8-8 after going 11-5)

Some quick notes:

*Gruden’s future will rest on the fragile frame of quarterback Jeff Garcia, snatched from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason. Garcia is an upgrade at the position. But can he get the Bucs back to the playoffs? Note that Gruden’s men are 20-28 straight up the last three seasons. It’s hard to imagine management allowing him to continue if the Bucs don’t reach the postseason this year.

*Gibbs is just 21-27 as Redskins coach the past three seasons, making the playoff run in 2005 seem like a fluke.

*Del Rio may have pushed the panic button by hiring Dirk Koetter (formerly head coach of Arizona State) to run the offense. It’s either genius or insanity. College coaches don’t have a good history in the NFL. Koetter had trouble finding success against top Pac 10 teams. Will he be about to outsmart NFL defensive coordinators?

*Coughlin barely survived last season. The players don’t often sing his praises. And, now patience is running out with quarterback Eli Manning too. If Manning doesn’t take a step forward fast, the Giants are probably the best nominee on this list to implode quickly.

*Lewis might not be feeling the pinch quite yet. This franchise was so bad for so long that the man who lifted them to the playoffs might get the benefit of the doubt for another season. Maybe, maybe not.

*Fox has only had one winning season in the last three, disappointing all the pundits who annually pick the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Keep an eye on all six franchises in their season openers. The writing will be on the wall for all six very quickly.  And if it doesn’t go well early, these are teams that may be weekly “go-againsts” if things don’t go their way early. Either enthusiasm ignites, or a harsh dose of reality puts out what’s left of the flame.

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