The Shark Attack:  Favorites Struggle in Week 1 NFL

By:The Sportsbook Shark     Date: Sep 14, 2006
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Sportsbook Sharks need to pay attention to what's winning and what's losing.  In Week 1 of the NFL we saw a strong suggestion that favorites are not going to cover the spread like they did last year, when they went a record-setting 58% against the pointspread.

Last week's NFL card started with the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers showing their championship form by pulling away from the Dolphins despite the absence of Big Ben.   It finished late Monday night with the powerful Chargers rolling over a putrid Oakland Raider eleven.  What a couple of gifts those small favorites were, laying a field goal or less with the superior team in both instances.

But what happened in between wasn't nearly as formful.   Only 3 of the remaining 14 favorites covered the spread, resulting in favorites struggling to an overall 5-11 pointspread mark in the NFL.   Overs were slightly worse, going 4-11-1, as many teams struggled to put points on the board.

Other than last year, the NFL has always had a good mix of dogs and favorites covering pointspreads.  Many smart observers thought that the dominance by favorites last season was a one year anomaly, and though one week of results are a mere blip, things may not be quite as obvious this season. 

Sportsbook Sharks will remember that when they notice how easy it looks to simply play the Baltimore Ravens off their 27-0 win against the Oakland Raiders off their 27-0 loss.  That is the kind of play that won for fun last year, but hasn't over the long run in the parity-driven NFL.   It will be interesting to see what trends develop in the upcoming week, but expecting the unexpected may not be a bad thought process for Sportsbook Sharks in 2006's NFL action.


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