Sportsbook Sharks need to pay attention to what's winning and what's losing.
In Week 1 of the NFL we saw a strong suggestion that favorites are not going to
cover the spread like they did last year, when they went a record-setting 58%
against the pointspread. Last week's NFL card started with the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers
showing their championship form by pulling away from the Dolphins despite the
absence of Big Ben. It finished late Monday night with the powerful
Chargers rolling over a putrid Oakland Raider eleven. What a couple of
gifts those small favorites were, laying a field goal or less with the superior
team in both instances. But what happened in between wasn't nearly as formful. Only 3 of
the remaining 14 favorites covered the spread, resulting in favorites struggling
to an overall 5-11 pointspread mark in the NFL. Overs were slightly
worse, going 4-11-1, as many teams struggled to put points on the board. Other than last year, the NFL has always had a good mix of dogs and favorites
covering pointspreads. Many smart observers thought that the dominance by
favorites last season was a one year anomaly, and though one week of results are
a mere blip, things may not be quite as obvious this season. Sportsbook Sharks will remember that when they notice how easy it looks to
simply play the Baltimore Ravens off their 27-0 win against the Oakland Raiders
off their 27-0 loss. That is the kind of play that won for fun last year,
but hasn't over the long run in the parity-driven NFL. It will be
interesting to see what trends develop in the upcoming week, but expecting the
unexpected may not be a bad thought process for Sportsbook Sharks in 2006's NFL
action.
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